Biologist P.J. White added, “the trend in counts still suggests that elk numbers have decreased substantially over the past decade.” Predation by wolves and other large carnivores and human harvests during the Gardiner Late Elk Hunt have been the primary factors contributing to decreasing numbers of northern Yellowstone elk since the mid 1990s. Other factors that have contributed to decreased elk numbers include a substantial winterkill caused by severe snow pack during 1997 and, possibly, drought-related effects on pregnancy and calf survival.

The Gardiner Late Elk Hunt was designed to reduce elk numbers outside Yellowstone National Park so that they do not cause long-term changes in plant communities or decrease the quality of their winter range. Tom Lemke, biologist for Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks (FWP) said, “as elk numbers and calf recruitment have declined in recent years, FWP has reduced the hunter harvest by significantly reducing the number of elk permits issued. At this point, hunter-related elk mortality is the only mortality factor we have some control over. ” FWP has tentatively proposed reducing the number of elk permits further next year, due largely to the substantial decrease in elk numbers and poor calf recruitment.

Kurt Alt, FWP's wildlife manager in Bozeman said, “this year’s count is good news because under good survey conditions we get a more accurate estimate of how many elk are really out there.” He added, “the final permit quota recommendation for next year will depend on a combination of the total count, migration size, and the calf recruitment rate, which will all be available later in the winter. We will certainly be in a very conservative hunting season next year, but just how conservative will be determined by the data we collect in the next few months.”

Below: He's the master of his world - for now. The huge bull elk watches for challengers in Gibbons Meadows at the peak of the fall rut. The bulls will spend most of the rut fighting and rounding up cows, with little time for rest or food.

From the NPS resources: The Madison-Firehole elk herd has been the focus of research by Dr. Bob Garrott of Montana State University since November 1991. This herd numbers from 650-850, and is believed to winter almost entirely within Yellowstone Park. The population appears to be naturally regulated to a degree not found in other, human-hunted elk herds. The information resulting from this research is useful in comparing unhunted and hunted elk populations. Researchers examined the effects of environmental variability on ungulate reproduction and survival. Researchers also examined elk use of areas burned in the wildfires of 1988. Observations indicated that elk have made more than casual use of burned trees; tests showed that fires altered the chemical composition of lodgepole pine bark, making it more digestible and of higher protein content than live bark. While the burned bark was not the highest quality forage for elk, it is comparable to other low quality browse species. The researchers speculated that elk select burned bark because it is readily available above the snow cover in winter.